Interest rates have been hovering around 0% for two years, so it’s almost impossible to find any kind of safe investment today—a savings account, or even a short-term CD or a money market fund—that will generate any kind of decent return in less than a decade. Most mutual funds are tethered to the market, and the only ‘safe’ ones (as far as safety goes—they’re stocks, so there’s always a significant risk involved) seem very similar to each other—heavily invested in finances, or tech, or whatever.
So you can’t really get a good short-term return on a safe investment. As recently as four years ago you could find a credit union which would give you a 5% APR on a savings account. It’s more likely gonna be around 0.5% now. So if you’re not planning for retirement, and want a short-term investment which might yield a high return…you need to invest in actual individual stocks, or begin a start-up.
Which brings me to my question: I know absolutely nothing about business (and significantly, I know less about what causes a company’s stock price to rise or fall, which is affected by a ton of different things than just profits), but I watch a lot of sports. I read ESPN obsessively, I follow blogs, etc…isn’t sports betting about equivalent to stocks, except I know more about sports? I know, the lines are rigged against us, but so are stocks, to a certain extent.
Well, if I were to bet on sports this this week, I’d go:
(Note: I only have one method for picking games—I try to think of a roughly equivalent game from the past. In the case of the Falcons and Packers, I think of the Falcons as the team that was steady and impressive throughout the regular season, and secured home-field advantage, while the Packers are the tumultuous team that went through a bunch of ups and downs and came together just as the playoffs started—but for some reason the comparison involves, in my head, a Warren Moon-led Houston Oilers team and the Mark Rypien Washington Redskins in 1992, so it’s an utterly worthless idea. But I think a lot of us subconsciously have those kinds of biases instilled at a very young age, when we’re first exposed to sports, and no matter how much evidence to the contrary we later find, we stick with the first impression. For me, the fact that the 1988-89 Pistons won a league-high 63 NBA games, then cruised to the title, makes me think every team that has a great regular season will succeed in the playoffs.)
BEARS (-10) over Seahawks
Ravens(+3) over STEELERS
FALCONS(-2.5) over Packers
Jets(+8.5) over PATRIOTS